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Roulette: Open Beta - enter to win a mystery prize


#101

It wouldn’t matter if I disallow new entries after the Spin 1. Even if I do -

:point_right: You can enter on Day 1 with a 100% probability that you will reach Day 2 or Day 3 with 1,000 gems.

If that is your goal and/or you think it is a good strategy, there’s nothing I can do to stop you from entering -

500 on (Red)
500 on (Black)

… for Day 1 and/or Day 2. You’re guaranteed to start the next day with 1,000 gems.

This a valid way to play, but in the end you’re just minimizing your exposure to risk for the first day or two and gambling your luck hits on the last day.

Is it an advantage? Maybe, if all the people you’re playing against are reckless, inexperienced, and/or unlucky… But really, I think it’s just shifting all your risk to one spin, which is just a different risk. In the end, the person with a high gem score who makes many “safe” bets could still lose to someone that has far fewer gems but gets really lucky with a “risky” bet.


I encourage you to try the strategy, if you believe it has strategic advantage. Since there is no house advantage, you cannot be stopped from starting Day 3 with 1000 gems, even if you are forced to bet. So it’s open for everyone to try.

By waiting to start on Day 2, you make a gamble saying “I think I most of the other players will lose or get unlucky,” so you decide to stay at 1,000 for a turn.

This is a sort of “meta” gamble and shows you’re not really thinking about betting the pure table odds, because – there’s a chance you get it wrong and Day 1 players got lucky and now your 1,000 gems is really behind. And now you’re at a disadvantage because you bet on something other than the pure table odds. Of course, there’s the probability you get it right and then you can say “I now have the advantage because I get everyone else would lose.”

I don’t know how to calculate the odds for those meta aspects of the game, but the table odds and pay rates are a perfect inverse. With house advantage removed, you really couldn’t ask for a more “fair” game to play.


#102

attempting to read latest posts:


#103

It takes a lot of time and effort when iron the wrinkles out of a game design. The discussion is open so that all people interested in contributing to it have the opportunity. I’m sorry if it’s suffocating for the others. We’ll try to have this sorted out by the end of beta :sweat_smile:


#104

hmm how to bet
500 on (2nd)
500 on (middle)
500 on (black)


#105

Okay for day 2 I’m doing

200 on F
200 on Black
200 on bottom


#106

@ohko and @Fraggles

I can see the points both of you are making here, and though I would suggest that there is some truth that you are likely to come out on top of a majority (?) of players by entering late - I’d also counter that we aren’t playing for money / gems here. We’re battling it out (via bets) for the top position, and the prize.
Which kinda makes being middling on the leaderboard, not that big of a deal - because you are still lagging behind those who made out like bandits in previous rounds.
So in that respect, I personally am not too concerned.

That being said, I think that this is only really verifiable through various rounds / games , and I think it is still a pretty important point to be brought up. Also, it kind off throws off the leaderboard a little, as it makes it a bit harder to guess your chances of staying ahead / getting back to a fighting chance - when you have unknown number of variables (new players), with varying tactics which you have not seen yet. I’d suggest it’s something that should be kept in mind for later, as I think there MAY be some advantage to sitting out the first, and perhaps second anyway. Assuming anyone really wants to win badly enough that they can excercise the self control to not bet in those rounds :laughing:

I can see the value to keeping it closed to new players once we have begun, especially if we have a 2-day rolling window.
I can also see the value, community wise, of allowing them to join - if they didn’t have time to join the first, for instance.

I think the best method is to bear it in mind, see how it effects outcomes, and remember that while we’re all here to have fun, optimizing the system is also the point of this Beta (which still says closed btw ohko :wink: ) , so percieved flaws ought be noted for further inspection, when more data is available.

Apologies if I repeated myself there, I feel like I did, but I got a bit of a headache (I blame these long post makers! :smiling_imp: ) so i shan’t be going back over it all with a fine tooth comb.

All that said, lets spend my winnings (wow, I can’t believe I nearly lost it all, 12 Red, really!? :laughing: )
My 600 :gem: shall be placed as follows:

250 on (High 19-36)
250 on (Black)

100 :gem: Remaining.

Thanksssss :purple_heart: :peace_symbol:


#107

Massive post ahead, you’ve been warned!
@Vindace is in the lead and he tried to ensure he’ll stay there for now. I hope you do not take this personally, since you’re the guy to beat here’s how to do it. All percentages are approximate and rounded, just meant to give a general idea. Fractions and never ending decimals never makes a post more enjoyable.

Vindace bet analysis:

  • 200 F 8.1% for 2400 = 5000
  • 200 bottom 33% for 600 = 3200
  • 200 black 50% for 400 = 3000
  • 16.21% (6/37) chance to win black on bottom row for 2600+600+400 = 3600

But NO chance to get all 3, since F has no black on bottom row. If 17 is rolled he gets black and F for 5600 total. Had he bet 200 on 17 instead that would land his total on 9800.

Damn Vindace’s bet did not make it easy to fight him. Everything here onward is just kind of off as I was working with the wrong rest sum.

Lets see if we can play the odds here. Vindace’s biggest chance to win is 50% on black. Therefor we can’t play on black unless we want to make sure we outbid him for black. This makes it an uphill battle so maybe we’re all better off betting on red and taking the 50/50 chance Vindace will lose.

His second biggest chance is 33% to win on bottom. It is obvious for us to take the opposing 67% chance that he will lose and limit our bets to the ranges within the top two rows. Excluding the 2 cells left in column F(18, 21). That leaves 11 red cells to work with, which is about 33% chance. Unfortunately we can’t bet on those 11 red cells as a group and there’s only 2 pairs available to bet on that would make sure you win and Vindace does not, (19,12) and (27,30). If we all bet on those we’ve essentially handed the win over to Vindace anyway since now our chance of winning is about 5.5% for either of those pairs, so that wont work. All of this was pointless, we’ll have to look at each individual player and what they are able to do instead and probably consider the possibility that Vindace gets at least some payout, so score to beat: 3600.

So I’ll start with me. The only bet that stands a chance at reaching Vindace score is a corner bet. If I put all my 500 on a corner I can come out of it with 4500. This will beat every single V outcome except the F column bet, which I can not compete with. Funny little tidbit, there’s 2 corners with 3 blacks but no corner with more than 2 reds.


My bet is: 415 on (30 33 29 32)


All of you can obviously make the same bet for the same result, but those of you with more gems might have safer bets that accomplishes the same thing. If you rather figure it out yourselves then feel free to just ignore the rest of this post. Of course this post is about how to beat Vindace, not how to beat the others. So you’re going to have to think about that part yourselves.

GDBringer 2000

If you want to bet everything on a 50/50 roll you can just throw all of it on red and that should give you the best chance at beating Vindace with 4000 gems, only outcome for vindace to take it is the 8.1% chance F column bet. Of course if you don’t win then you’re out so you could be 1901 gems for a 3802 payout, beating Vindace with 2 points, but not me if I were to win.

Lordcaldera 1700 + Rakada 1500

Unfortunately the 50/50 colour bet is already out of reach at this level. Next bet grade up is 2:1 dozen or row with a 33% chance to win. As long as you don’t bet bottom row you’re fine with anything here really. 1060 on mid row gives you 3820 which would tie you up with my best effort at a 33% chance.

PeteMcc 1500

Since he’s already bet I’m going to analyze his chances instead.
500 on 2nd 33% for 1000 = 2500
500 on middle 33% for 1000 = 2500
500 black 50% for 500 = 2000
None of these results will beat Vindace even if he doesn’t win anything and both of you winning black wont do anything. If the roll lands on 14, 17, 20 23 for Pete’s second and middle bet though, that’s 3500 which beats Vindace even if the blacks are rolled which gets Pete up to 4500, that’s at about 10% chance.

So there’s my take on the whole thing at least. Hope someone enjoyed the reading at least partially as much as I did the typing and messing about with the numbers.


#108

lol, u do realize that @Vindace can still change his bet and bet 200 on 17, right? I changed my bet like 15 times, rofl

anyways, i think next time I’m just gonna copy your bets


#109

That wouldn’t actually be a good idea though. Far lower chance of winning for a far larger payout. In fact his column F bet is part of what messes up counter bets so much.

But here’s a good topic to touch on as well. I doubt any roulette table would allow you to change your bets. So it’s worth considering for this game, should there be a rule to make bets final or should they be allowed to be changed up until the roll time?

Also you don’t have to post images at full size, you can resize them to not pointlessly take up such an awful lot of forum space.


#110

Ah yes I see you have discovered my deep and intricate strategy… looks away nervously.


#111

@discobot roll 20d37


#112

:game_die: 24, 26, 6, 20, 21, 24, 4, 20, 25, 15, 33, 34, 14, 33, 37, 37, 4, 13, 35, 8


#113

@discobot roll 1d20


#114

:game_die: 7


#115

if i wanted a small kappa, i’d use a small kappa, this was a big kappa


#116

Spin 2 :black_circle: 4

Posting the updated scoreboard soon


#117

Well GG @Vindace. That’s 3600 :gem: for your black bottom.


#118

lol


#119

Day 2 Scoreboard

@ Wins Score
@Vindace 0 + 400 + 600 + 2,600 = 3,600 :gem:
rakada 3,000 + 0 = 3,000 :gem:
GDBringer 2,000 :gem:
lordcaldera 1,700 :gem:
Pylinaer 400 + 400 + 0 + 0 + 0 + 600 = 1,400 :gem:
PeteMcc 0 + 0 + 1,000 = 1,000 :gem:
DrFlamingo 0 + 600 + 0 + 0 + 0 + 200 = 800 :gem:
ohko 800 :gem:
AHMEDJXZ 700 :gem:
scar1 0 + 500 + 100 = 600 :gem:
coralinecastell 550 :gem:
RosetteoXChrno 450 :gem:
Fraggles 0 + 85 = 85 :gem:
YQMaoski 0 = 0 :gem:
M00 0 :gem:
anyamtikja 0 :gem:
kovec 0 :gem:
Danacscott 0 :gem:
Lifedeather 0 :gem:
CreatureFeet 0 :gem:

The final roll will be the same time tomorrow.

Everyone can begin placing their Day 3 bets below :point_down:


#120

100 on [17]
500 on 2nd
500 on Top
300 on Red

(Ballsy is at 4600 lol.)

For reference

Spin 2
500 on [29, 30, 33, 32]
1100 on Mid
1000 on 1st
1400 on [15, 18, 17, 14]
200 on Low
600 on Black

Spin 3
900 on [23]
1200 on 3rd
1100 on B
1400 on [30, 29]