Massive post ahead, you’ve been warned!
@Vindace is in the lead and he tried to ensure he’ll stay there for now. I hope you do not take this personally, since you’re the guy to beat here’s how to do it. All percentages are approximate and rounded, just meant to give a general idea. Fractions and never ending decimals never makes a post more enjoyable.
Vindace bet analysis:
- 200 F 8.1% for 2400 = 5000
- 200 bottom 33% for 600 = 3200
- 200 black 50% for 400 = 3000
- 16.21% (6/37) chance to win black on bottom row for 2600+600+400 = 3600
But NO chance to get all 3, since F has no black on bottom row. If 17 is rolled he gets black and F for 5600 total. Had he bet 200 on 17 instead that would land his total on 9800.
Damn Vindace’s bet did not make it easy to fight him. Everything here onward is just kind of off as I was working with the wrong rest sum.
Lets see if we can play the odds here. Vindace’s biggest chance to win is 50% on black. Therefor we can’t play on black unless we want to make sure we outbid him for black. This makes it an uphill battle so maybe we’re all better off betting on red and taking the 50/50 chance Vindace will lose.
His second biggest chance is 33% to win on bottom. It is obvious for us to take the opposing 67% chance that he will lose and limit our bets to the ranges within the top two rows. Excluding the 2 cells left in column F(18, 21). That leaves 11 red cells to work with, which is about 33% chance. Unfortunately we can’t bet on those 11 red cells as a group and there’s only 2 pairs available to bet on that would make sure you win and Vindace does not, (19,12) and (27,30). If we all bet on those we’ve essentially handed the win over to Vindace anyway since now our chance of winning is about 5.5% for either of those pairs, so that wont work. All of this was pointless, we’ll have to look at each individual player and what they are able to do instead and probably consider the possibility that Vindace gets at least some payout, so score to beat: 3600.
So I’ll start with me. The only bet that stands a chance at reaching Vindace score is a corner bet. If I put all my 500 on a corner I can come out of it with 4500. This will beat every single V outcome except the F column bet, which I can not compete with. Funny little tidbit, there’s 2 corners with 3 blacks but no corner with more than 2 reds.
My bet is: 415 on (30 33 29 32)
All of you can obviously make the same bet for the same result, but those of you with more gems might have safer bets that accomplishes the same thing. If you rather figure it out yourselves then feel free to just ignore the rest of this post. Of course this post is about how to beat Vindace, not how to beat the others. So you’re going to have to think about that part yourselves.
If you want to bet everything on a 50/50 roll you can just throw all of it on red and that should give you the best chance at beating Vindace with 4000 gems, only outcome for vindace to take it is the 8.1% chance F column bet. Of course if you don’t win then you’re out so you could be 1901 gems for a 3802 payout, beating Vindace with 2 points, but not me if I were to win.
Lordcaldera 1700 + Rakada 1500
Unfortunately the 50/50 colour bet is already out of reach at this level. Next bet grade up is 2:1 dozen or row with a 33% chance to win. As long as you don’t bet bottom row you’re fine with anything here really. 1060 on mid row gives you 3820 which would tie you up with my best effort at a 33% chance.
Since he’s already bet I’m going to analyze his chances instead.
500 on 2nd 33% for 1000 = 2500
500 on middle 33% for 1000 = 2500
500 black 50% for 500 = 2000
None of these results will beat Vindace even if he doesn’t win anything and both of you winning black wont do anything. If the roll lands on 14, 17, 20 23 for Pete’s second and middle bet though, that’s 3500 which beats Vindace even if the blacks are rolled which gets Pete up to 4500, that’s at about 10% chance.
So there’s my take on the whole thing at least. Hope someone enjoyed the reading at least partially as much as I did the typing and messing about with the numbers.