[Idea] 1-week lottery

Site Feedback
1

As there were multiple people unhappy about missing a game that sold out very fast, I got the following idea:
The coin shop offers could be open 1 week minimum and in this time you can register for a game. After the week if there are less entries than keys you just receive the key, but if there are more entries than keys, the winners will be picked randomly. You only lose your coins if you win and if you do not have enough coins you lose your entry.
The remaining games after one week can then be sold as first come first served.

With this system there shouldn’t be any more reason to complain about not having a chance to get a game from the shop that sold out too quickly.

This is just an idea, as I don’t really have a problem with the current situation. I am okay with the system you have right now. But I don’t see a reason not to change to that system for people who have a problem with it (except work load for you of course). …If I think about it, it would actually be bad for me, as I haven’t missed a single game and with this system there’d be a chance to miss it. Okay, drop that idea.
So fire your pros and cons :smile:

3 Likes
2

Any luck/random system is inherently bound to generate situations in which members will win or miss 3 three times in a row, for instance. Would be pretty frustrating, wouldn’t it? I don’t think this is the way to go, even if it was somehow balanced by an algorithm.

7 Likes
3

I am not so sure if that couldn’t be helped with weighted probability… each time lost you receive a bonus which will reset once you win.

Also isn’t it quite frustrating for people if they miss 7 games in a row, because they were sold out in a few hours (e.g. Sorry for living in the wrong timezone)? (Did not happen to me and I wouldn’t care, but that’s what this idea is about :wink:)

1 Like
4

I just like that by the end of the post you have completely talked yourself out of the idea you came up with :grin:

5 Likes
5

Hi!
I don’t think the system we have is a terribly flawed one. But your idea of a lottery made me think.
What would you guys say about an additional lottery once a week (additional to the typpical with coins purchasable games), but where one could buy tickets (let’s say for 24h) with earned coins to get a chance of recieving a game currently presented in the lottery.
Naturally you could increase your chances by buing more tickets, but you can’t win more than one copy of a game.
I’m sure this would solve the inflation-problem and the fast selling-out of coin-games.

6

personally i’m against a lottery, lotteries are inherently unfair, you can go your entire life never winning anything, because chance
I did mention the issue of time zones in another post, honestly preferred it back when we didn’t have the 2 week counter, instilled a sense of randomness, making it more fair since no one knew.
to combat the timezone thingy suggested/suggest chrono staff vary up when they dump the games so no one got special treatment, making it US time zone everytime makes it easier for some and harder for others (needing to set alarm in the middle of the night to get up and check can be a bit of a bother)
so if it jumps around all the time all over the diff time zones, unconnected to sale time, it sorta would even out the playing field a bit
an optional lottery might be a way to reduce coin surplus, but again, losing out because of chance can suck, but changing the biweekly shop games to anyway related to lottery type would be worse imo, since you couldn’t combat that the slightest, unlike now where we at least can set out alarm to wake us up, even if a bit trite.

TLDR, Lotteries suck, more people lose out than win, = more sore people than just affected by timezones, use alarm to not miss coins or shop releases now we know the dates

1 Like
7

Did you read, that you shouldn’t lose coins if you “lose”?
In that case there is no unfair, if a good RNG is in use (actually also without this rule it would be fair, as everyone has the same chance, but it doesn’t feel that way).
Also did you read the addition, to add a higher chance for every time lost + reset when win?

There are many games, that wouldn’t be even sold out in the lottery. It only helps with games that would sell out really quickly and in that case it is fairer to give also people a chance that do not visit the page every 2 hours.

The proposed system is in no way unfair.

8

yes, it is
so
case one, you really want a game (say like now, where people miss out because sold out so fast), so you enter the lottery, no win, you lose out still,
point 2, buy more more and more tickets, you lose still, because hey chance (what would be the point of lottery if you could eventually buy enough to get 100% and could all afford that again unfairness), but assuming you cant “buy” your way to 100% win you can still lose out, even if no coins are lost, you still lose out on game you really wanted, like system is now
only difference is, how system is now, there is basically no chance involved, only effort, you can guarantee your chance of getting the game you want by logging in at the appropriate time, difficult maybe, more for some even, perhaps, but far from impossible and far from removed as “chance” would make it
again, games that don’t sell out, prob because not as popular and would go to others (like now) games popular would sell out (like now) only difference is now you leave it all in the hand to chance, making it inherently unfair, and possibly even becoming desperate enough to spend a ton more on something vs the fixed price in shop (as mentioned possibly great for coin surplus, agreed, but bad for individual buyers)
scenario 3, game comes in lottery you really really want, to make sure you get it you buy tons of tickets to increase chance to win, you win, yay, but turns out game wasn’t popular to others so go in the “not sold out” bin, leaving you having paid 12000coins for something you only really needed to have paid 250 coins for (say cheap one like CAT interstellar), making winners even more bitter, because now they can’t be a part of the next deal, at “best” have their chances reduced to insignificance
there is no way it is remotely possible to set up any type of lottery system that is even close to fair, because “chance” and it removes any and all direct involvement other than "buying it outright (like the guy did with that state lottery back when), which again will just bankrupt users (if chrono even makes “100%ing” it plausible to happen to begin with)
there is a reason some places designate a lottery as “taxes for stupid”, because even on the best of days, with best and most generous odds, it’s still a worse deal for the player
the current system might not be perfect, but no type of lottery you could scheme would make it better,
adding an optional secondary lottery as mentioned might take care of surplus coins, but would still be a lottery and not really benefit users, (not that everything should benefit users alone and not Chrono) but that simple surplus could easily be removed by other means that wouldn’t just leave you at the mercy of chance
NO rng is ever good or fair, miss 99-100% shots in Xcom much?,
dono what you’ve been playing, but RNG is never to the benefit of the user/player, the math is just not there, the current system is much better for that, granted it could be better (personally still hope they think about the voting or reserving or notification changes others have suggested)
but lotteries are always bad, even for lucky people, because their luck might just run out when the game they wanted most get up, where as now, they can just log in on time when announced (or be obsessed and be logged in beforehand)
basically if you don’t get what you want with the current system you have 1-2 problems, either you don’t have enough coins (which would equally screw them over with part of your system) or 2 they are too slow logging in when games get released, which is something they could remedy themselves by logging in (granted annoying af to have to set alarm if living in diff timezone but atleast an action that can be directly impacted vs chance)

in the end it’s up to the Chrono staff, but the only ones winning with a lottery is the house, not the user/player, ever, so don’t for one second think yours or any lottery system you make up would be better than what we have atm
(btw i don’t intend to come of as sounding harsh, but it’s a simple matter of math, and it’s just never there in “our” favour, “the house always wins”)

make them streaks, log in on time and get them games, “ez”
and prices seem to be going up anyway so surplus likely to be taken care off gradually, limiting those insta buyouts more and more

chance is never fair, lady luck is a fickle bitch and a cruel mistress, 26 years of gaming RNG taught me that, you can lose +100x with 99.999 chance to win each time, and it sucks every god damn time my friend

9

You talk about a completely different system than the one I am proposing. Here is where I may have been unclear: you can only buy one entry (for the price of the game) and you are only billed if you win and only at the time of winning, so you can even enter for multiple games. If, at the time of distribution you do not have enough coins you lose your entry (in that case you obviously won’t get the chance increase for the next entry). So you can even enter upfront when you do not have enough points, if you think you can get enough until that point. It is completely the same as at the moment only that more people have a chance to get a game that is extremely popular (and at the moment there IS chance involved: have you been online at the right time – also depends on whether you even have enough time to check as regularly as others, who also want the game).

I don’t even care if the system will be changed or not, as I check frequently enough, but I see that enough people miss games they would have liked. But either those did not check this thread yet or they do not like that solution. Or they just didn’t bother answering…

10

really don’t want to argue this anymore
there is 0 “chance” in the current system whatsoever, not only can you get notified, but you can check in manually, and it takes less than 10 secs to check in and we know the day the drop happens (granted didn’t exactly know earlier but didn’t hinder checkin in)
there is absolutely no “chance” involved when all it takes is the effort to manually check in, any type of lottery, even the way you propose involve chance, = worse, and upping the ante for non winners just means other people have less “chance” despite maybe wanting a game more, (and still not a guarantee unless being upped to 100% eventually which would still not be “fair”)
nothing involving chance blind luck provide real fairness, the current system has 0 chance involved only requires effort, and minimal at that
it’s like when people say they missed out on coin because couldnt check in in time, you have 24 hours to check in for it, it takes less than 10secs to to do, how do you miss unless you “try to miss”, granted the window for coin shop release is smaller, but there is 0 chance involved, you have the tab open, got some spare secs you look at your phone, no? okay try agian later or wait to get notified, and again if notification comes “late” it’s still because of lack of effort, and not chance.
lottery = chance, any type of system with chance = less fair, because no personal impact because no RNG is good, perfect or fair, no matter how good you try to make it, because such is the nature of luck, chance, or randomness,
totally 0 chance in current system, could be better no doubt, but at least there is not dumb blind luck involved and it’s all on ourselves if we hit or miss, effort is all that need applied, not rubbing the belly of a buddha

11

Okay I guess, we have a different view when it comes to equal chance/fairness and I think we won’t end up agreeing on the same definition.

I’ll try one last time to explain my view on where chance comes into the current system:
The system per se is chance free as in first-come-first-served, BUT chance comes in from timezone, different life situations etc. Not everybody can react to a notification from Chrono at once or check regularly. So, the chance is not equal for everybody to check at the right time. With a bigger timeframe comes equal chance to enter the lottery.

As for the lottery itself. same chance for everyone => fair.
Also same possibility to get higher chance (lose giveaway) => fair.

So I think we have to different standpoints and that is okay.

12

timezone etc life situation has nothing to do with chance, but would be made “easier” if stuff got switched around hence suggestion
and are you just blatantly ignoring whats already been stated multiple times
even with 99.9999% chance in your favour you can statistically miss 100% of the times = not fair
and then the poss to get higher chance is also = unfair because that would but some at a severe advantage over others vs some with disadvantage = utterly irrefutably unfair
mathematically you cannot make any type of lottery that involves any element of chance that would be remotely fair, because chance, this is not opinion, this is facts based in math and stats, however improbable something is to happen, it is still possible with chance, so someone could end up losing all the time and someone winning all the time unless you’d be willing to reject previous winners then robbing them of their “equal” chance another time = also unfair,
it can not be done “fair”
first come first serve is exactly that, 0 chance and all about linging up, easier for some sure, but 0 chance, and again why suggestion about “respecting others timezones” have already been made to vary it up a bit, to even the “easeiness”, not chance, around
i don’t live in the US timezone, but got no problem making it on time, because i check in alot, it takes 10secs or less, and if you have a job that don’t allow that like if you’re in surgery, then that’s not chance, that’s circumstance you have to account for, which can be done, granted not easy, but possible, again all required is effort, 0 chance.
and i totally agree the timezone thingy is a hassle for many, again exactly why it’s been suggested to switch it up at random to spread it out, but still 0 chance involved, because can all check in if we wanted to, just a bigger hassle for some than others, but absolutely 0 chance
and no “same chance for everyone” does not equal fair, because there will be winners and loser to no fault of their own, because; chance, and they can go on that way in perpetuity, that’s how chance work, and no system you can set up could balance that out without making it unfair to the remaining parties.
It’s really simple and shouldn’t be that difficult to understand, just because you have X% chance to win don’t mean you will win Ytimes, unless X is 100, which again would be unfair to the rest if it ever came to that point in “seniority”
you can have 99.999infinity chance to win, and still lose 100% of the times in your life, each and every single time, = unfair, because chance robs you of any chance in the end

13

Yeah like I said, we have a different view on fairness when it comes to chance.

E.g. I would say rolling a dice against each other is fair. Equal chance == fair.
Example: Most 6 rolls out of 100 rolls wins.
player one: 0-times 6, probability: (5/6)^100
player two: 100-times 6, probability: (1/6)^100
(on base of a perfect 6 sided dice).

I would say that is fair, even if one player was extremely lucky and the other extremely unlucky.
From your point of view the example above wouldn’t be fair and I don’t see why it wouldn’t be.

One could argue the added chance for every time lost is unfair.
In a sense it is, because you could have the higher chance for a valuable game. On the other hand it isn’t, everyone has the same chance to have that bonus at that time. But the addition of higher chance for not winning, is optional in my idea and I am not sure if the pros of receiving a higher chance after losing outweighs the cons.

And for the chance factor in the current system. Like I said it’s not in the system itself, but due to different life situations/timezone etc… In which way doesn’t life sitation/timezone etc. change the chance to be online at the time the new games are added? Why should different timezones have different chances to get a game? Even if the start time is varied, that just means timezone A has a better chance to get game X, while timezone B has a better chance to get game Y. With a time frame of about a week everybody should have a chance to enter.

14

it’s unfair because of theoretical/statistical chance might be fair, but the actuality does not becomes so
it’s not fair that 1 person can/does win 100% of the time, without any possible influence
where as you say now 1 person gets/could get every game because of first-come-first-serve, but anyone displeased with that could affect it as they saw fit
where as they cannot affect chance, call it bad luck, karma, born under a black star, or just probability and anomalies, but the fact it there is 0 influence thus it’s not fair because you could be “doomed” to never win a single game ever, and the same person win all, because of the practical applications of chance
just because you have the same theoretical odds doesn’t make it “fair” because the odds doesn’t “work” in a fair way just because they are presented as such
timezone varying not so much in respect to each game 8whcih yes would suck if person in timesone A would prefer game 2 that falls in timezone B), but again, real world application- personal influence, which is even for all
yea it¨’s a bitch, but it’s still chanceless, and even to all, because even if you were in timezone x you’d still be presented with the same circumstantial influences like those in B C etc

you way could possible completely “rob” a set of people not only the chance to ever win a game at all, but even more so a game they actually wanted = 100% unfair, despite initial theoretical chance/odds.
can’t be done,
more influence/control, not less, the only question would be how, voting, reserving, etc could be ways but likely to be convoluted too, even if not impossible
in essence first-come-first-serve is fair in it’s simplicity because it leaves everything in the hands of the person that “wants” it the most, circumstances be damned
(speaking as one that missed out on both Dustforce and OFDP, i can say i blame no one but myself for being slow to the finish line and certainly not luck or chance, and is why i’m better at checkin in now)

15

It’s funny as how you are speaking as someone that already missed something and I speak as someone that did not miss anything (and even wouldn’t give a #@%$ if I missed GTV 5…okay actually in that case I would cry a whole day).

Thanks for the discussion :smile: (no sarcasm!). I have nothing to add and I guess we only would repeat ourselves if we go on.

1 Like
16

Every time I hear the word “lottery” I think of Shirley Jackson’s short story, "The Lottery".

I didn’t realize people actually “cancelled subscriptions and sent hate mail”. If you haven’t read it, grab a copy somewhere. It’s is even worth a “reread”, in these days and time. It describes a mob mentality to perfection.

17

Your idea is great for busy people - those can’t online or visit the site daily. But when it comes to lottery, i personal don’t like it much, because lucky isn’t usually by my side. So yeah, a part of me wants to say yes, but other part says don’t take the risk :joy:

We really need a poll right here. I like looking at that more than a wall of text of people’s opinions in this topic :confounded:

2 Likes